Sunday, September 7, 2008

Mwai Kibaki, the President

President Mwai Kibaki has always had a very successful career as a politician. He is the only Kenyan politician who has contested and won every parliamentary election since independence. By the time he retires from active politics, he will have been in Parliament for half a century. He has been everything in the world of Kenyan politics—MP, Assistant Minister, Minister, Vice President, Leader of Official opposition and President!

A career so long and so successful has, expectedly, drawn all sorts of analyses. There are those who argue that fate and luck have always conspired to hand him more than he deserves. To them, he has not sacrificed enough for most of the positions he has held. But then in politics, just like in sport, who doesn’t need luck?

On the other hand, there are those who insist that beneath the veneer of disinterest and ambivalence is a skillfully calculating politician who understands very well the battles to fight and those not to. He has always been presenting his case to the people and according to them, all power comes from God and legitimate authority on earth comes from the people.

A friend of mine, an avid supporter of the President, recently recounted to me the behind the scenes negotiations that President Moi spearheaded in the 1998/1999 period while trying to craft a quiet succession plan. According to him, the first step was to lure Michael Wamalwa into killing his party and joining KANU. The Kanu think tank considered Wamalwa a poor man who, with the promise of a couple hundred million shillings, would be all too willing to play ball. That almost succeeded had it not been for the fierce opposition voiced by Party MPs James Orengo, Musikari Kombo and Mukhisa Kituyi. The second plan was two-fold; Talk to both Kibaki and Raila Odinga and convince them that Moi was willing and ready to build his political world around them with Kibaki on top of the ticket. Mark Too was tasked with approaching Raila while both Njenga Karume and Paul Muite were to approach Kibaki. While Raila Odinga played along, Kibaki is said to have sat quietly as the Kiambu delegation made their case about how their community had suffered in the opposition and how badly they needed him at that moment. Kibaki’s response-----‘Stick with the opposition. I have worked with Moi long enough and I know him well’. Whether that was insight or plain disinterest is hard to tell.

We all know that Kibaki has always been an eminent economist and a committed public servant, but what really is his legacy as President? How has he handled the two halves of democratic reform (political and economic) so far?

Economially, the President has, by and large, steered the country in the right direction. Approximately, average annual revenue collection has tripled under his watch and that has enabled Kenyans to fund most of their development projects without so much of external aid.

The free (I would rather call it affordable) primary school education program will always remain his biggest achievement as President. Inasmuch as the program has not been 100% successful, it has changed the lives of so many Kenyan children. President Bill Clinton, in an interview with Peter Jennings in 2004, mentioned Kibaki as the one living person he would most like to meet and thank for his government’s abolishment of primary school fees. It may not mean much to those of us who never considered primary school fees a headache, but to that family that lives under a couple dollars a day, that means the world to them.

The CDF program has also been a success. The mere fact that we are able to construct cattle dips, dispensaries, schools and even colleges without the need for fundraisers is a major step forward. The idea of the CDF makes a lot of economic sense because regions (constituencies) are able to prioritize development goals and buy that which they need most.

But the biggest problem still remains corruption. Mega scandals like the Anglo leasing have been such an embarrassment. A reduction in official corruption has enabled the government to collect more revenue and do with very little foreign aid, but a startling failure to wipe it out completely has also meant that we have not lived up to our potential. The abetment of corruption is responsible for the meager salaries that civil servants, policemen and teachers continue to earn.

As much as this President wants to be remembered as the one who put Kenya’s economy back on track that is going to prove really hard if, in his own words, corruption doesn’t cease to be a way of life.

When it comes to political reform, President Kibaki has been a stark failure. To this end, he can only be credited with promoting press freedom and expanding the democratic space. Unlike the KANU era when Moi, for a quarter century, kept a lid on political dissent by maintaining a permanent state of emergency, now people can say whatever they want without looking over their shoulders. Police harassment of opposition politicians is a thing of the past. But Kenyans can also remember that it was his own wife who terrorized innocent journalists, slapping them and asking them stupid questions in the middle of the night. The President never saw it fit to issue an apology. His lieutenant, John Michuki, with the help of Armenian terrorists, presided over the most barbaric attack on any media house in recent history!

President Mwai Kibaki promised Kenyans a decent agreeable constitutional document within 100 days of his assumption of office. It has now been more than 2000 days and that promise continues to be a pipe dream. You cannot talk of any meaningful political reform if the constitution that guides you is a hoax. It is the very renege on this promise that is responsible for last year’s disputed election. It is the reason why, in some people’s minds, he is not the legitimate President of Kenya.

I also do not think the President can claim to have overseen meaningful political reforms when almost half of those sitting in his cabinet are characters with dubious pasts. Whatever reasons he has them in government and not in jail are, to me, not buyable.

As far as I am concerned, President Kibaki has been good for the country economically but awful politically. Which begs the question; which one comes first-the economy or the politics? And can we really have both? The way we want them?

9 comments:

Kwale said...

Vikii,

I couldn't agree with you more than what you have just said on that post. I am not surprised no-one has commented on it. They just don't like to hear the truth if it's not Raila.

I am looking for people who can help me spread the message Raila is not a messiah. I have reach to a point where I believe people should really know who Raila Odinga is. So, I am inviting you and others of your kind to my blog "Raila is not a messiah" and if interested give me some ideas on how to stop this molasses worship.

Anyone interested please visit my blog "Raila is not Messiah", and leave a comment. I am hoping to get as many readers as possible.

UrXlnc said...

vikii i regretably want to punch some holes in this article perhaps to ask for further clarification.

succesful politician - agreed in the unusual kenyan sense, yes, absolutely, see closing comment below

eminent economist - ther is no hard/concrete evidence presented. what we all know (have heard) is that it has been said he was a bright economic student. could you kindly peg a national achievement directly to his efforts. we should be able to find intitiatives that either succeded or faced political or other challenges and were dropped, am thinking about stuff like if you were to compare with moi the nyayo tea zones, nyayo car assembly, kabarnet high school, etc

cdf program - as i recall this was not his brainchild

vikii this is not like you to anchor your arguments on hearsay, and is definitely not like you to propagate rumours to beef and prop up the same type of myths associated with politicians. have you finally given up the fight, are you losing it? am sure you can prove me wrong kind sir, when you do get a moment.

as for not sacrificing enough etc, i think that's what makes him a successful politician, he has kept afloat all through without breaking a sweat as you aptly put it "a skillfully calculating politician who understands very well the battles to fight and those not to". ironically that would perhaps be the very reason he chooses not to battle corruption don't you think.

Vikii said...

Kwale, thanks for the invite. I will definitely visit your blog, read what you have to say, decide how much I like it and respond accordingly.

Urxlnc, keep in mind that I am not a supporter of President Kibaki.

Now about Kibaki not being an eminent economist, well, my understanding is that he was kenya's best finance minister. If you disagree with that, please furnish me with a better one. Also since he became President, the country has witnessed an economic transformation. You can choose to go blind on that one, but that wont take the truth away. For someone who did not work for the corporate world, fairness demands you judge him on the job he has done--in politics. You do not graduate on top of your class without understandng shit.

Now about the CDF, it is pointless to dwell on whose idea it was. Nobody has a monopoly of ideas and in fact great leadership dictates listening to the ideas of others and putting them to work. The core of the debate should not be on the birth of ideas. The success of the CDF could only be guaranteed if the economy was managed soundly. With reduced borrowing,the sustainability of such an enormous undertaking (alongside the many others like the LATF and the universal education)could only be hinged on sealing the loopholes of tax evasion, sound government investment, a massive reduction in corruption and of course carefully prioritized spending. It is not the kind of thing that happens miraculously. Even mediocre ventures like the Nyayo milk proved to be unsustainable. You have to get things in place.

About his calculating nature, i will tell you that the quickest way to the Presidency is not through burning briges, it is by building them. The best way to start on that is the avoidance of unnecessary fights that only serve to frustrate you. I think that's the path Kibaki chose. Now, is he a successful politician only in the Kenyan context? Well that is open to the interpretation that suits the reader, but even if it were fundamentally true, does he not practice his politics in Kenya?

Kibaki's failure to fight corruption is sickening, Urxlnc. That is one area we agree on---- wholly.

Anonymous said...

"my understanding is that he was kenya's best finance minister"

No quarrel with that. Only comment is compared with whom


"Also since he became President, the country has witnessed an economic transformation."

this is a ambiguous mixture of - economic performance/growth remained consistent and at par with other countries in similar circumstances until the last 5 years of Moi (mis)rule. Factors that brought economy to its knees was a rich cocktail whihc included portions and double portions of gross executive intereference, elevated levels of corruption, and the biggest stumbling block was the IMF/World Bank and other donor withdrawal and the withholding of donor funds over a 5-7 year period that totally crippled the govt operations which at the time was modeled to run almost entirely on donor funds

has the economy improved? certainly. but it has come back to be at par with other nations in similar circumstances. for this reason i believe it was Moi misrule that drove the economy to the brink, and therefore with the new govt and a revived donor community the economy was bound to recover

the question i always ask is, has the economy improved because of kibaki or has the economy improved because of taking away moi mis-rule. mathematicians would call this the null hypothesis.

other factors include, the fact that economy cannot be equated to a personal bank balance (i.e deposit cash and your economy improves instantly, withdraw the cash and its gone).
macro-economic policies effects are typically realised in chunks of year blocks e.g 7, 10 etc, with minor sometimes cosmetic changes but the real underlying effects ripple through the system in cycles over various significant time frames. mismanagement of course will bring it down rapidly and suddenly but sound policies tend to be long drawn.

the real check for the initial policies will be felt in the 7th - 9th year since 2002 i.e 2009/2010 and these will be reinforced by maintaining or aggressive enhancements. leaps from 7-10% growth to 12-15% or better will signify excellence even genius and indeed i hope it will be so. but evaluations based on 2005-2007 figures are premature and that is my position. am not saying kibaki has or has not performed well, am saying lets continue to monitor and evaluate and not get mesmerized by window dressing.

corruption, my brother, you are spot on, it cannot be over-emphasised enough, leadership has failed, citizens are disillusioned. we must fight this battle with all we got. surprisingly i dont really fault kibaki on that, of course it would have been nice for him to be at the helm, but knowing how he operates i never expected that to come from him rather from the more heckler type politicians so with the fallout in 2005 i knew it was all over.

UrXlnc

Anonymous said...

Empirically, Emilio is the best president Kenya has had--the N is rather small too. But its really hard that he gets judged against an ideal, which NO ONE(other than perhaps Hon. Dr. Stephen) can measure up to.

Anonymous said...

This Blog is dead

Vikii said...

Agreed. Dead as a dodo.

Kwale said...

It look like it's only Vikii who is capable of posting an article here.
In other words, if Vikii don't do a post this blog is dead!

Au reviour Hakujachucha!!

Billy Mutai said...

You got it well, Nani kama Kibaki